You are currently browsing the The MPT Rating weblog archives for August, 2008.
27. August 2008 by admin.
Wednesday,
Market rallies but fails to catch the attention of “Smart Money”…
The DJIA gained 89 points for the day down from the high and still within the tightening trading range indicated on the attached chart by the support and resistant lines. I see this market as having the ability to break up or down from here, but I think the end result of any break up would only be a double top met by building resistance that will send the markets into a tailspin to find new lows in the near future. Having said that there is potential for a break out higher and with this much unclear you want to be a trader here, taking advantage of the opportunities to scalp profits as holding multiple days is not something the current market offers any certainty of.
The NASDAQ gained 20 points today and failed to close above the resistance line on the attached chart… I see the same conditions here as I see on the DJIA. Trade select opportunities or remain in cash until the smoke clears.
Today’s MPT (Market Power Trend) Rating, which tells us what “Smart Money” is doing in the market and where support/resistance is came in at (03); we have seen the market rally on these low figures, but the moral of the story here is that “Smart Money” is not loading their boats with stock in anticipation of a major rally here, and that tells us volumes about the conditions of the current market.
As Always; Be Smart, Be Patient, & You Will Be Successful.
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26. August 2008 by admin.
Tuesday,
Market whipsawed all over the map today as consolidating the bottom continues to be the order of the day…
The DJIA gained 26 points for the day maintaining the uptrend line with potential to press higher tomorrow. Volume is week here ahead of the three day weekend and I would not be a long-term holder here, but would play select companies in favor of the bull trend higher; at least until just before the three day weekend where I would look for profit taking to be the order of the day.
The NASDAQ lost 3 points for the day, falling through the up-trend line, but formed another bottom signal by the close telling us we do have a support in the area that is putting the breaks on the bears, and whether we stop here or fall again tomorrow… the end result will be a support bringing about another bounce and the overall market direction will be determined from that bounce. If the bounce fails to break higher we will have a double top which will force stocks lower, but if we break out then investors will have a reason to pause and build a base from which to challenge the next high. As you can imagine a lot is riding on what the market does from here, but the main thing to take away from this is that your trade strategy must change to fit the market you are in… Sometimes you have to be a bull, sometimes you have to be a bear, and sometimes you have to day trade or remain in cash to survive… right now I am a bull with a tight stop for the upcoming bounce.
Today’s MPT (Market Power Trend) Rating, which tells us what “Smart Money” is doing in the market and where support/resistance is came in at (01) again; this tells us today’s break down in the market to a new low verses yesterday did not do any damage to the support line we are feeling in the market… so the lower low can be ignored.
As Always; Be Smart, Be Patient, & You Will Be Successful.
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25. August 2008 by admin.
Monday,
I was looking for the market to consolidate today, but not that much… In the end today’s activity did not effect us as we were in cash, at PerfectStockAlert.com but it did send us looking for a buy opportunity and we found a nice one.
The DJIA shed more than 250 points today closing down 241 points, but this is nothing that can tell you anything other than we needed to consolidate after the 3 up days last week, and this pullback was in line to be nothing more than a natural correction, even though it was a big one. Can the market bounce tomorrow? Absolutely, and after a major 241 point loss in a single day I would be surprised if it did not at least try to rally tomorrow morning. The slow stochastic indicator on the 6 month daily chart is no longer heavily overbought and this also tells us to be looking for a bounce, though there is room for further selling in the average so be selective.
The NASDAQ lost 49 points for the day filling the lower gap formed Friday, but creating an upper gap formed this morning which I believe needs to fill before we can see the bottom drop out of this market. The pullback today, though closing below the uptrend line did not undercut the previous low on the 6 month daily chart and that means the average could easily bounce tomorrow, but from this position you can not tell what it is likely to do as the slow stochastic indicator is at about the 50 line, and that means it could go in either direction justifiably… but I am betting on a bounce sooner then later.
Today’s MPT (Market Power Trend) Rating, which tells us what “Smart Money” is doing in the market and where support/resistance is came in at (01); this tells us today’s sell off fell to a support level, and that further provides strength to the bounce theory, though it could start off with a premarket sell followed by a burst of buying in the attempt to reverse course higher. All in all I am looking for a bounce attempt.
As Always; Be Smart, Be Patient, & You Will Be Successful.
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22. August 2008 by admin.
Friday,
The market bounce is well under way now, but the conditions by which it is bouncing show no long-term support and this bounce is likely nothing more than to show a double top.
The DJIA gained 197 points today showing a good deal of optimism remains in this market heading into the weekend, but time smart money buying was below accumulation levels and I don’t anticipate this rally to be anything other than a short-term bounce, and until we see some quality reversal of the current trend the
The NASDAQ bounced +34 points today but the volume was weak and the gap up created this morning inserts a flaw which will need to be corrected, this means shorts are going to have the upper hand as they know the gap will must be filled. This continues to be a traders’ market in my opinion and we have been successfully using it all year and will continue to do so.
Today’s MPT (Market Power Trend) Rating, which tells us what “Smart Money” is doing in the market and where support/resistance is came in at (04); this tells us today’s buying was not that of smart money and this confirms the lasting power of this bounce is nothing to get excited about. I would look for the market to repeat more of today’s action Monday, as lows are tested and new highs are made where short-term potential is relevant to those trading smart.
As Always; Be Smart, Be Patient, & You Will Be Successful.
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21. August 2008 by admin.
Thursday,
The markets further solidified a bottom today from which they can bounce from… This means those looking to trade tomorrow should do so in favor of the longs rather than shorts, but there is the potential that the market could break down and continue in the direction of short plays, so have that stop and exit strategy in place before you enter the trade.
The DJIA 12 points today adding to yesterdays’ gains but the real story is in that hammer candlestick formation confirming my bounce theory. You can make assumptions all day long about how high the bounce can go, but the main point is to be trading in tandem with the overall market – don’t be short when your market is bouncing higher.
The NASDAQ lost 8 points today, but this just means it is more due a bounce than it was yesterday, and I would look for this next week. Yes the rally could start Friday, but I am not so certain there is enough confidence in the market to have investors holding over the weekend… I would not do it; not on the long side anyway. The NASDAQ is finding support on the middle BB line and that means this bounce is highly likely to be the last one before our next peak takes us to the lower BB line. In other words, don’t get to attached to the long trades, they are not likely to last, and if the NASDAQ fails to break into new highs we will have a double top signal that could put bears in complete control of this market for some time to come.
Today’s MPT (Market Power Trend) Rating, which tells us what “Smart Money” is doing in the market and where support/resistance is came in at (03); this tells us today’s buying was not that of smart money and this confirms the lasting power of this bounce is nothing to get excited about. I would look for the market to repeat more of today’s action tomorrow, as lows are tested and new highs are made where short-term potential is relevant to those trading smart.
As Always; Be Smart, Be Patient, & You Will Be Successful.
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